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Pokies maths

RTP is a long-run model, not your refund

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A 96% theoretical RTP describes expected return across millions of wagers under stated conditions. It does not mean a player receives $96 back from each $100 session.

Illustration for RTP is a long-run model, not your refund

Guide updated 24 September 2026

Pokies maths: the practical details

Individual sessions can finish far above or below the model. Bet size, game version, feature purchase and rule configuration can also change the published figure.

Key distinctions

  • RTP is calculated over large samples.
  • House edge is approximately one minus RTP.
  • Volatility shapes the distribution, not the average alone.

Put the information to use

  1. Find the exact game version.
  2. Read the in-game help.
  3. Convert RTP to house edge.
  4. Set a cash and time limit first.

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Popular question

Does 96% RTP mean I only lose 4%?

Not in a session. Four per cent is the theoretical long-run house edge; actual short-term results can vary dramatically.

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